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Regional Commentary and Property Market Statistics - August 2019

Market Statistics

Property Brokers 13 Sep 2019

PB030482 - Regional Commentary & Property market Statistics FINALThe number of residential properties sold across New Zealand in August decreased by -6.1% from the same time last year to 5,959 (down from 6,346), the lowest level of sales for 7 months, according to the latest data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), source of the most complete and accurate real estate data in New Zealand.

For New Zealand excluding Auckland, the number of properties sold decreased by -6.9% when compared to the same time last year (to 4,198 down from 4,509).

Bindi Norwell, Chief Executive at REINZ says: “Despite a good uplift in sales during July, August saw sales volumes fall by -6.1% from the same time last year – the lowest level of sales for 7 months.

This was a bit of a surprise given the strength of July’s figures, however, an extremely wet August across most parts of the country and the past three months having the lowest number of new listings of any consecutive three months since records began in 2007 look to have been contributing factors.

“Additionally, we’ve had 3,624 fewer new listings than at the same time last year. With limited choice in many parts of the country in terms of new listings, we’re hearing from a number of agents that people are waiting to purchase before they put their own property on the market, which is slowing the whole market down. Hopefully as confidence starts to improve over the coming months, we’ll start to see this flow through to new listings which leads to more choice for buyers,” continues Norwell.

“Sales volumes for the Auckland region fell by -4.1% when compared to August 2018, but breaking this down showed volumes actually only fell in Auckland City (-14.0%), North Shore City (-13.0%) and Manukau City (-5.4%). Whereas they increased by 43.0% in Papakura District, 16.2% in Franklin District, 13.8% in Rodney District and 0.4% in Waitakere City showing how mixed the Auckland region is,” continues Norwell.

Regions with the greatest decrease in annual sales volumes during August were:
• Southland: -33.2% (from 187 to 125 – 62 fewer houses)
• Hawke’s Bay: -18.4% (from 223 to 182 – 41 fewer
houses) – the lowest number of sales in 19 months
• Taranaki: -16.6% (from 187 to 156 – 31 fewer houses).

Regions with the greatest increase in annual sales volumes during August were:
• Tasman: +12.3% (from 57 to 64 – 7 more houses) – the highest for the month of August in 3 years
• Bay of Plenty: +7.7% (from 441 to 475 – 34 more houses) – the highest for the month of August in 3
years
• Nelson: +2.9% (from 68 to 70 – 2 more houses) – the highest for the month of August in 3 years.

 

Regional Analysis - Auckland

“The Auckland market saw a drop in median price to $820,000, down -3.5% on the same time last year. The REINZ House Price Index decreased -1.5% compared to this time last year, one of only three regions that didn’t see a new high. Manukau City had the largest decrease (-10.5%) in median price in the region, dropping from $860,000 in August 2018 to $770,000 in August 2019. Days to sell in Papakura escalated to 16 days longer than in August 2018. Although, Rodney District has Auckland’s highest number of days to sell at 53. The number of new listings in the Auckland market decreased by -14.0% and the number of properties sold decreased by -4.1% year-on-year. Although there has been a drop in sales, there has still been a lot of requests for appraisals and in general we are seeing the market starting to pick up again. Anecdotally, we aren’t seeing as many buyers at the top end of the market but there are big numbers in the first home buyer category, particularly in the Franklin area where there are lower value homes compared to closer to the City. Low interest rates have driven more investors into the market than we have previously seen in the last six months. Over the next couple of months the market should remain constant and the normal seasonal growth in listings and sales should help provide more choice for buyers.” (REINZ)

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from July to August, the observed minute decrease in median price was in contrast to an expected minute increase and the observed decrease in sales count was larger than expected. The current Days to Sell of 44 days is above the 10-year average for August which is 35 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 21 weeks, one week less than in August 2018.

Auckland_Aug-19 

Regional Analysis - Northland

“In August, the Northland region saw a record high median price, up 10.8% to $507,500 compared to the same time last year. The Kaipara District stood out this month with a substantial increase in sales year-on-year from 12 in August 2018 to 30 in August 2019. Overall, the number of listings in the Northland district have gradually reduced after a peak in March. New listings were down by -15.4% and the number of days to sell increased by 27 days compared to last year reaching 76 days this month, the second highest increase in the number of days to sell throughout the country. Anecdotally, we are seeing more interest from buyers in the lower priced ranges, but low stock seems to be holding sales volumes back due to the lack of choices. Access to finance has been reasonably easy to obtain in the mid to upper price ranges, but more difficult to get across the line in the lower price range. Less than 20% of written sales in August were not reliant on a finance clause.” (REINZ)

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from July to August, the observed increase in median price was in contrast to the expected decrease and the observed decrease in sales count was smaller than expected. The current Days to Sell of 76 days is much larger the 10-year average for August which is 64 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 35 weeks, 4 weeks more than in August 2018.

Northland_Aug-19

Regional Analysis - Waikato

“The Waikato region continues to be a resilient market with an annual increase in median price of 2.5% to $538,000. The Taupo District reached a new record median high of $515,000 compared to the same time last year. Interestingly, the South Waikato District also experienced a significant increase in median price of 37.4% from $195,000 in August 2018 to $268,000 in August 2019. Although new listings in the region decreased by 8% overall year-on-year, new listings in the Coromandel region increased by 1.4%. The number of sales in the region decreased by -0.6%, and more notably in the Hauraki district by -54.3%. Although sales numbers are down, there is still good enquiry from first home buyers and more recently investors who have been scarce but are slowly coming back into the market. We have seen a few listings come to the market from landlords who want to sell their rental investments. Over the next few months we should start to see more of the enquiries over the last month turn into sales.” (REINZ)

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from July to August, the observed small increase in median price was in contrast to the expected tiny decrease and the observed increase in sales count was larger than expected. The current Days to Sell of 47 days is less than the 10-year average for August which is 48 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 16 weeks, four weeks less than in August 2018.

 

Waikato_Aug-19

Regional Analysis - Bay of Plenty

“The Bay of Plenty continued to be buoyant throughout August with the region experiencing a 7.0% increase in the median price from $560,000 in August 2018 to $599,000 in August 2019. New listings went up 1.7% annually, one of only four regions that saw an increase in new listings. Prices in Tauranga City are up 4.7% to $670,100 – the highest price we’ve seen in 10 months. Additionally, the Rotorua District experienced a new record high of $465,900 compared to the same time last year. Anecdotally, in Rotorua we have noticed that there has been an increase in the number of people moving to retirement villages as vacancies occur, which is adding a good number of new listings to the Rotorua region. At a regional level, the number of sales under $500,000 decreased from 39.46% to 30.11% yearon-year which could be due to investors being more active in the market and competing against first home buyers. The lowering of the official cash rate is also likely to be bringing investors back to the market who are looking for a better yield than bank rates.” (REINZ)

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from July to August, the observed increase in median price was in contrast to the expected slight decrease and the observed increase in sales count was larger than expected. The current Days to Sell of 42 days is less than the 10-year average for August which is 51 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 14 weeks, the same as in August 2018.

BOP_Aug-19

Regional Analysis - Gisborne

“The median price in Gisborne increased by 25.4% annually from $355,000 in August 2018 to $420,000 in August 2019, due to the increase in the number of properties sold between the $250,000 - $499,999 price bracket from 49.12% in 2018 to 77.78% in 2019. Gisborne has again seen a new low in total inventory with only 68 properties and 6 weeks’ total inventory available, which is a result of new listings being down -17.9% year-on-year. Vendor expectations have increased by about 30% which is likely due to the lack of listings available, pushing up prices in the region. The REINZ House Price Index for the Gisborne/Hawke’s Bay region experienced a new high of 2,882, up 13.1% compared to the same time last year. Reportedly, there has been 50% more attendees at open homes this month, particularly first home buyers trying to find a home. First time priced or tender properties are more popular compared to auctions.” (REINZ)

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from July to August, the observed increase in large median price was larger than expected and the observed stability in sales count contrasted with the expected large increase. The current Days to Sell of 30 days is much less than the 10-year average for August which is 42 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 6 weeks, six weeks less than in August 2018. This is the lowest level of inventory of all the regions.

Gisborne_Aug-19

Regional Analysis - Hawke's Bay

“A 12.4% increase in median house prices saw the Hawke’s Bay region achieve another record median price of $500,000. Napier City also reached a new record median high of $555,000. However, with new listings down slightly by -0.4% annually, the number of properties sold during August fell by -18.4%, the largest decrease in sales in the North Island. Inventory levels are down -3.6% year-on-year with only 8 weeks’ total inventory available. The number of days to sell in the Central Hawke’s Bay District increased annually by 26 days from 18 days in August 2018 to 44 days in August 2019. A good portion of current listings are land and build packages in the higher price brackets. Anecdotally, we are seeing more attendees at open homes and large numbers of first home buyers, compared to last year” (REINZ)

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from July to August, the observed increase in median price was a bit larger than expected and the observed large decrease in sales count was much larger than expected. The current Days to Sell of 33 days is less than the 10-year average for August which is 41 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 8 weeks, the same as in August 2018.

Hawkes Bay_Aug-19

Regional Analysis - Taranaki

“The Taranaki region saw a 15% increase in the median price reaching $391,000 in August 2019 compared to the same time last year. Additionally, the South Taranaki District reached a record median high of $302,000, up 52.5% compared to the same time last year and the first time the median price has gone over the $300,000 mark. The New Plymouth District also experienced a record median high of $475,000, up 9.8% year-on-year. The number of listings sold under $250,000 decreased from 29.41% in August 2018 to 16.03% in August 2019 which has likely contributed to the increase in the median price. The market remains steady with an abundance of purchasers in the mid-range price bracket, with a slight increase in the $2,000,000+ price bracket (+1.28% year-on-year). Over the next few months, we should start to see an increase in spring listings.” (REINZ)

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from July to August, the observed increase in median price was larger than expected and the observed decrease in sales count was larger than expected. The current Days to Sell of 35 days is much less than the 10-year average for August which is 47 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 15 weeks, two weeks less than in August 2018.

Taranaki_Aug-19

Regional Analysis - Manawatu/Whanganui

“The Manawatu/Wanganui region saw continued price growth with a record median price of $390,000 in August, up 25.6% on last year, the highest increase in median price in the North Island. Despite the uplift in prices, the number of properties sold year-on-year fell -16.3%. Additionally, there was a -9.2% fall in the number of new listings and inventory decreased by -6.9% compared to the same time last year. The lack of available properties and lower priced properties on the market continue to push competition amongst first home buyers. The number of properties sold in the $500,000 - $749,999 price bracket has increased from 13.57% in August 2018 to 21.92% in August 2019. The market continues to be in a buoyant state with the number of sales being restricted by the availability of listings. Prices are likely to be driven upwards by multiple offers and a strong demand from first home buyers in the lower priced categories. Investors seem to be reluctant still with changes in regulations with the healthy homes requirements.” (REINZ)

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from July to August, the observed increase in median price was a little larger than expected and the observed decrease in sales count was in contrast to the expected minute increase. The current Days to Sell of 28 days is much less than the 10-year average for August which is 43 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 9 weeks, the same as in August 2018.

Manawatu_Gisborne_Aug-19

Regional Analysis - Wellington

“In August, the Wellington region saw an increase in median price from $590,000 in August 2018 to $636,600 in August 2019. Wellington City reached a record median price of $810,000 year-on-year, the first time it has gone over the $800,000 mark. Additionally, the Kapiti Coast District also saw a record median price of $610,000 showing the continued popularity of the Coast for lifestyle reasons. The number of properties sold in the $500,000+ price bracket increased from 62.66% in 2018 to 74.18% in 2019, which is likely contributed to the price increase. The Masterton District had a particularly strong month with an increase in median price year-on-year by 19% reaching $400,000 and an annual increase in the number of sales by 33.3%. Overall, new listings in the Wellington region decreased by -19.7%. Properties in the outer suburbs such as Wainuiomata and Stokes Valley are very attractive for investors and first home buyers alike. Due to the lack of listings, and increase in median prices, vendors are expecting slightly more in terms of their asking prices” (REINZ)

 

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from July to August, the observed small increase in median price was smaller than expected and the observed decrease in sales count was in contrast to the expected minute increase. The current Days to Sell of 32 days is less than the 10-year average for August of 36 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at seven weeks, the same as in August 2018.

Wellington_Aug-19

Regional Analysis - Nelson/Marlborough

“The Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman regions were fairly steady this month. The median price in the Tasman region remained unchanged compared to the same time last year, while the Nelson region experienced a 11.6% increase in the median price to $586,000 year-on-year. The Marlborough region experienced a slight annual decrease of -1.1% in median price to $435,000, one of only two regions in the South Island to see a negative year-on-year movement in price. Marlborough saw the highest decrease in the number of days to sell across the country, decreasing by 12 from 49 days in August 2018 to 37 days in August 2019. All three regions saw an increase in sales volumes, with the Tasman region reaching the highest increase across the country of 12.3%. The market is showing signs of increased activity, particularly in Nelson. Anecdotally, open home numbers remain constant and strong numbers are being achieved on new listings still. Interest rates have positively impacted the number of first home buyers and investors in the market. Nelson is still seen as an attractive investment and its’ affordability and accessibility is a good indicator of the growth that continues in the region.” (REINZ)

 

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from July to August, the observed minute increase in median price was a bit smaller than expected and the observed decrease in sales count was a bit smaller than expected. The current Days to Sell of 38 days less than the 10-year average for August which is 40 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 13 weeks, half a week less than in August 2018.

Nelson_Marlborough_Tasman_Aug-19

Regional Analysis - West Coast

“The West Coast region saw the median price drop -6.1% annually to $215,000 (down from $229,000), but up from July’s median of $175,000 showing the continuing volatility of the West Coast market. On the flip side, the median price has increased 22.9% from last month. New listings have also increased by a significant 77.9%, the highest across the country, from 68 in August 2018 to 137 in August 2019. Although, the region saw a significant 44 day increase in the number of days to sell go from 50 days in August 2018 to 94 days in August 2019. However, the region is considerably busier than 18 months ago as the effects of the recovered steel making take effect. Anecdotally, we are seeing more and more retirees from the Nelson and Marlborough area buying in the region to capitalise on lower value homes. The LVR restrictions are still creating a barrier to entry for young couples who are wanting to purchase their first home. Over the next few months the market will be slow but we should start to see it steadily rise.” (REINZ)

 

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from July to August, the observed large increase in median price was quite a bit larger than expected and the observed large increase in sales count was larger than expected. The current Days to Sell of 94 days is much less than the 10-year average for August which is 109 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 36 weeks, 15 weeks less than in August 2018.

West coast_Aug-19

Regional Analysis - Canterbury

“The Canterbury market continues to remain steady with a median price of $439,000 in August 2019, up 3.3% compared to the same time last year. Sales volumes increased by 0.9% year-on-year. However, the region experienced a slight decrease in the REINZ House Price Index by -0.6% from peak, one of only three regions to see a decrease from peak, and the only region in the South Island. Lower interest rates and increases in rent are seeing more first home buyers in the market. There is an increase in the number of investor interest in the region as well, especially with those investors with money in the bank who aren’t receiving very good returns. There are strong numbers at open homes and plenty of buyers out there looking for homes especially in the $500K and under price bracket. We anticipate a busy lead up to Spring as buyers get motivated to act on their decisions and as more listings come to the market.” (REINZ)

 

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from July to August, the observed small decrease in median price was a touch larger than expected and the observed small increase in sales count was fractionally smaller than expected. The current Days to Sell of 39 days is higher than the 10-year average for August which is 34 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 17 weeks, six weeks less than in August 2018.

Canterbury_Aug-19

Regional Analysis - Otago

“The Queenstown Lakes District saw a 5.7% increase in the median sale price in August from $932,000 to $985,000, albeit down from July’s $1,005,000. This winter was similar to last year with slow but steady sales. As we come into Spring, we have seen more people at open homes. The warmer season always brings out more buyers and sellers, so we should see the market lift in listings and sales over the next few months.” (REINZ)

 

“Median prices in Dunedin City have continued their steady upward trend and have increased annually by 11.9% to $460,000. New listings also increased by 22.7%, one of only four regions that saw an increase in new listings. Investors are becoming active again with low interest rates on offer continuing to put pressure on the first and second home market.” (REINZ)

 

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from July to August, the observed decrease in median price was fractionally larger than expected and the observed small increase in sales count was smaller than expected. The current Days to Sell of 31 days is less than the 10-year average for August which is 38 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 10 weeks, one week more than in August 2018.

Otago_Aug-19

Regional Analysis - Southland

“The Southland market saw the highest increase in median price across the country and a new record high, up 29.2% from $240,000 in August 2018 to $310,000 in August 2019. Additionally, Invercargill City also achieved a record median house price of $318,000, up 36.8% year-on-year. The steady increase in median prices in the region indicate how strong the market has been performing over the last year. The REINZ House Price Index in Southland also experienced a new high of 3,066, up 15.2% year-on-year. However, new listings decreased by -33.2% compared to the same time last year which may explain why sales volumes have also decreased by -33.2% and why prices have increased so significantly. Anecdotally, multi offers are still being presented and buyers are anticipating increases in prices due to the shortage in listings. Buyers are aware that Southland is still relatively affordable compared to the rest of New Zealand. The majority of buyers are at the more affordable end of the market and there is an increase in first home buyers this month compared to last year.” (REINZ)

 

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from July to August, the observed increase in median price was larger than expected and the observed large decrease in sales count was quite a bit larger than expected. The current Days to Sell of 31 days is less than the 10-year average for August which is 40 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 10 weeks, one week less than in August 2018.

Southland_Aug-19