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Regional Commentary and Market Statistics - July 2018

Market Statistics

Property Brokers 15 Aug 2018

Market_Statistics_Feb_2017.jpg

House prices across the country have continued to rise in July with a 6.2% increase year-on-year with a median price for the country of $550,000 according to the latest market statistics from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ).

For New Zealand excluding Auckland, the increase was even greater with an 8.6% annual increase from $419,000 to $455,000. In Auckland, prices fell -0.1% year-on-year to $835,000 (down from $836,000). Four regions saw record prices during July, these were Northland, Taranaki, Nelson and Marlborough.

Bindi Norwell, Chief Executive at REINZ says: “The shortage of properties available for sale across the country is continuing to push prices up in all regions across the country except for Auckland. With July producing another four regions with record median prices we desperately need to increase the supply of new houses – be that through KiwiBuild or from private developers and builders – in order to fill the significant shortage of properties around the country" says Norwell.

“Auckland continues on its steady trajectory with only minor changes in median price each month. Delving into the Auckland region in greater detail highlights that Auckland and North Shore cities saw median price decreases of -1.6% and -1.3% respectively to $892,000 and $985,000. However, Waitakere City saw a median increase of 4.6% to $774,000 highlighting the popularity of this more affordable part of Auckland,” she continues.

“The stability of Auckland’s median price will be welcome news for first time buyers struggling with Auckland’s house prices, but time will tell whether the low to mid $800,000 mark is a longer-term trend,” continues Norwell.

 

Regional Analysis - Auckland

“The Auckland median house price of $835,000 remains at similar levels to last July’s median house price of $836,000. Though we are seeing a slower market, which is typical for midwinter, there are early spring signs that this is changing. The overall market is starting to grow in sales numbers, compared to the same period last year. However, there is a growing number of lower priced housing in eastern and southern areas that have come on the market and with that we see an increase of first home buyer interest in these areas.

Most vendors are being realistic, especially at the end of an auction campaign. However, they can be slow to respond to softer conditions, if price reductions are required to meet the market expectations. As we move closer to spring, it will be interesting to see what will happen in the market.”

The seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed decrease in median price was fractionally smaller than expected and the observed decrease in sales count was greater than expected. The current Days to Sell of 41 days is more than the 10-year average for July which is 34 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 22 weeks, one week less than in July 2017.

 AKLD_Jul18

 

Regional Analysis - Northland

“Northland continues to see a steady winter market and the region experienced a record median house price of $481,000 for the month, led by growth in the Far North and Whangarei. With the continued strong interest, the listing shortage continues and there is very little bare land for sale.

Most buyers are owner/occupiers, which is a quite interesting change in the market because it means that first home buyer and investor interest has slowed down; an effect that is most likely due to very low listing numbers in the right price bracket. The Northland market continues to be of interest for out of towners, especially with a lot of interest from Auckland. When spring kicks in we should see the usual pick up in listings in all price brackets."

The seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed increase in median price was greater than expected and the observed decrease in sales count was less than expected. The current Days to Sell of 49 days is considerably less than the 10-year average for July which is 59 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 30 weeks, three and a half weeks less than in July 2017.

 NTHLD_Jul18

 

Regional Analysis - Waikato

“The midwinter market in Waikato remains on a steady course with prices and volumes holding up particularly in the Waikato and Thames/ Coromandel Districts. Banks are open for loans to first home buyers and we are seeing a few KiwiSaver loans coming through.

We are experiencing healthy viewing numbers for good properties, but the number of multi-offers that have been coming through has decreased. The regional rental shortage, especially in Taupo, encourages investors to buy. The end of winter will probably follow a similar pattern as this month and hopefully vendors will feel more confident putting their house on the market once the spring weather has arrived.”

The seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed decrease in median price was in contrast to the expected small increase and the observed increase in sales count was in contrast to the expected small decrease. The current Days to Sell of 43 days is less than the 10-year average for July which is 48 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 20 weeks, five weeks more than in July 2017.

 WKTO_Jul18

 

Regional Analysis - Bay of Plenty

“The Bay of Plenty market is still seeing low stock levels and a number of new listings are attracting multi-offers. First home buyers’ interest has cooled which could be an effect of the lower listing numbers. Investor numbers are jumping and are up to 60% of the total buyer interest, and most of the investors are locals who know the area well.

The low listing numbers are keeping the prices strong and vendors’ expectations are remaining at the same levels. We are starting to see early signs of a spring influx of listings as these are picking up now and hopefully the buyers will also come along.”

The seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed minute increase in median price was fractionally higher than expected and the observed decrease in sales count was greater than expected. The current Days to Sell of 43 days is much less than the 10-year average for July which is 54 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 15 weeks, the same as in July 2017.

 BOP_Jul18

Regional Analysis - Hawke's Bay

“With the continued strong buyer demand in the Hawke’s Bay market, we now have the lowest stock levels that we have seen since records began in 2007. Hastings has around one months’ worth of inventory and Napier has one and a half. Half of the stock that got listed in July, were rentals. The number of rentals on the market corresponds with the increase in investors we are seeing compared to one year ago.

The gap between what a buyer will pay, and vendor expectations is growing. Agents are starting to adjust to the AML changes. The market will mostly stay the same for the remainder of winter and it will be interesting to see how the latest tightening will affect listings in spring.”

The seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed stability in median price was in contrast to the small increase that was expected and the observed large decrease in sales count was much larger than expected. The current Days to Sell of 34 days is considerably less than the 10-year average for July which is 45 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 6 weeks, two weeks less than in July 2017 and the lowest level of inventory (in terms of weeks) of all regions in NZ.

 HB_Jul18-1

 

Regional Analysis - Taranaki

“The Taranaki market continues to be very active with the highest increase in listings (+20.2%) across the country. The region experienced a new record median house price of $375,000 for the month – a 15.4% increase in price compared to the same period last year. There are multiple factors that are affecting the market at the moment and it ranges from bank lending criteria to vendors’ traditional reluctance to sell during the winter months, which makes it harder to predict what will happen going forward.

Demand is still strong, and the market is stable, but with fewer sales compared to the same time last year due to the shortage of inventory. However, this hasn’t affected the prices, and once the spring kicks in and the number of listings rises again we expect prices will continue to hold.”

The seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed increase in median price was quite a bit larger than expected and the observed large decrease in sales count much larger than expected. The current Days to Sell of 32 days is much less than the 10-year average for July which is 44 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 15 weeks, one week less than in July 2017.

 TAR_Jul18

 

Regional Analysis - Manawatu/Whanganui

“The Palmerston North market is currently very advantageous from a seller’s perspective and agencies are reporting that they are desperately short of listings. The shortage has been present for a few months now, however, the market is still moving along with continuous strong buyer interest and prices holding up.

The interest is mainly driven by first home buyers and owner/ occupiers from the local population looking for their first home or to upgrade. The sales volume will pick up if listing numbers start to rise, which hopefully will be the case in September when spring arrives."

The seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed decrease in median price was slightly greater than expected and the observed decrease in sales count was greater than expected. The current Days to Sell of 28 days is much less than the 10-year average for July which is 48 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 9 weeks, four weeks less than in July 2017.

 MAN_Jul18

 

Regional Analysis - Wellington

“Wellington experienced a stronger midwinter market compared to July last year with the median house price now at $545,000, an increase of 10% from $495,000. Much of this price increase is attributable to the growth in properties sold for between $500,000 and $749,000 which increased from 33.2% of the market to 40.9%.

Even though the median house price dropped from last month’s record level, the strong demand in the market and the low numbers of available listings keeps the prices at a high level. The last month of winter will most likely continue in the same pattern, and hopefully the inventory will continue to rise moving towards spring.”

The seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed decrease in median price was slightly greater than expected and the observed large decrease in sales count was greater than expected. The current Days to Sell of 32 days is less than the 10-year average for July which is 40 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at seven weeks, half a week more than in July 2017.

 WGTN_Jul18

 

Regional Analysis - Nelson/Marlborough

“The Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman market was varied in July with some areas seeing a very robust market whilst others experienced a more traditional slower winter market, as the shortage of listings continues. The Nelson market is experiencing the third winter of strong activity, with a new record high median house price of $547,000 for the month. Marlborough also experienced a new record high median house price of $453,500 for the month. The overall market sees many local first and second home buyers that are more active at investors’ expense, with multi-offers still very common.

Low listing numbers keep the demand strong and vendors continue to be aware of sustained market activity. The attendance at open homes in the lower price ranges has been very high. Competitive situations are seeing more conditions being addressed prior to multi offers. Spring will be interesting if stock levels rise but pressure remains on pricing, resulting in some big ranges offered and premium prices paid in multi-offers.”

The seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed increase in median price was in contrast to the expected decrease and the observed decrease in sales count was greater than expected. The current Days to Sell of 36 days is less than the 10-year average for July which is 39 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 14.5 weeks, one week more than in July 2017.

 NEL_Jul18

 

Regional Analysis - West Coast

“The market on the West Coast continues to be positive even in the midst of winter. Median prices are up 30.8% on the same time last year and up 9.8% on June and the median number of days to sell is the lowest for the month of July in 7 years. The LVR restrictions are still impacting on buyer’s ability to borrow, even in our lower priced West Coast market.

Most buyers are coming from the Nelson and Marlborough region, and they are looking for a new home during their retirement years. These buyers are mainly cash buyers, which was gained from houses they sold in more expensive parts of the country. We have seen a slight increase in investors compared to last month. Many of the properties that were sold in July were older homes in higher priced areas.”

The seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed increase in median price contrasted with the expected decrease and the observed large decrease in sales count was much larger than expected. The current Days to Sell of 63 days is much less than the 10-year average for July which is 101 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 60 weeks, eight and a half weeks less than in July 2017.

 WC_Jul18

 

Regional Analysis - Canterbury

“Canterbury is seeing a good midwinter market. First home buyers are still a buoyant part of the market and we are noticing again that more investors are coming out to have a look around. A lack of stock and new listings over the last few months means there are fewer actual sales occurring, even if we see plenty of interested buyers. We are also getting quite a few ‘subject to sale’ offers coming in, however, when a new listing does come onto the market, it’s being snapped up straight away. Vendors are still hoping for the stronger prices of two-three years ago but generally know that is a ‘hope to get’ rather than a likely result.

In Timaru, there are lots of new buildings being constructed which shows confidence in the market. July sales volumes are lower due to stock shortages, but the interest in listing in the spring is picking up so we expect sales to return to normal in the September results.”

The seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed small decrease in median price was fractionally greater than expected and the observed decrease in sales count was only a little greater than expected. The current Days to Sell of 38 days is slightly higher than the 10-year average for July which is 34 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 21 weeks, three and a half weeks more than in July 2017.

 CANT_Jul18

 

Regional Analysis - Otago

“The Otago market is continuing to struggle with low stock levels. There are still plenty of buyers around and competition remains fierce for well priced property. Open home attendance rates are still strong. Rental yields are not changing significantly with rents rising more in line with property prices now after playing catch up for some time."  Dunedin City.

“The Queenstown Lakes market remains steady; sales volumes have been low over the winter months, but values have reached a record median despite the cooler weather. Lending continues to be a challenge for many and borrowers continue to tick a lot of boxes. There is still a lack of stock, however this is typical for this time of the year. The market usually picks up again in the early spring months, but it will be interesting to see if this slow market continues."  Queenstown.

The seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed stability in median price contrasted with the expected small increase and the observed decrease in sales count was greater than expected. The current Days to Sell of 30 days is much less than the 10-year average for July which is 44 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 10 weeks, half a week more than in July 2017.

 OTGO_Jul18

 

Regional Analysis - Southland

“Southland saw the strongest year-on-year volume increase of all 16 regions in New Zealand. Coupled with a strong median price increase year-on-year, the market is in a good position. There has been a decrease of listing numbers compared to last month. This is probably due to the season more than anything.

Looking forward, we are most likely to continue seeing a steady market if listings improve. Interestingly, Southland is one of only two regions in New Zealand with a sub-30 median number of days to sell.”

The seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed stability in median price contrasted with the expected small decrease and the observed large increase in sales count was greater than expected. The current Days to Sell of 27 days is much less than the 10-year average for July which is 42 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 12 weeks, three and a half weeks less than in July 2017.

 STHLD_Jul18