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Regional Commentary and Property Market Statistics - July 2019

Market Statistics

Property Brokers 06 Sep 2019

PB030482 - Regional Commentary & Property market Statistics FINALThe number of residential properties sold across New Zealand in July increased by 3.7% from the same time last year to 6,118 (up from 5,897), the highest for the month of July in 3 years, according to the latest data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), source of the most complete and accurate real estate data in New Zealand.

For New Zealand excluding Auckland, the number of properties sold increased by 2.5% when compared to the same time last year (to 4,224 up from 4,120).

Bindi Norwell, Chief Executive at REINZ says: “This is the first time in eight months that we’ve seen the number of properties sold around the country increase on an annual basis suggesting that we’re starting to see some early signs of growth.

“Some of this can be attributed to more certainty post the removal of the Capital Gains Tax, but it’s also about
pockets of renewed confidence and parts of the market finding its new normal in terms of pricing.

“With August’s surprise 50 basis points drop in the OCR, going forward we expect to see even more signs of growth – especially as we move towards the warmer weather when we tend to see more activity in the market,” she continues.

“Looking around the country, 9 out of 16 regions saw annual increases in sales volumes with strong growth recorded at the top of the South Island and the middle of the North Island. Overall, we saw the highest number of
properties sold for the month of July across the country in 3 years,” continues Norwell.

Regions with the greatest increase in annual sales volumes during July were:
• Nelson: +25.0% (from 68 to 85 – 17 more houses sold) the highest for month of July for 4 years
• Gisborne: +14.9% (from 47 to 54 – 7 more houses sold)
• Canterbury: +14.6% (from 735 to 842 – 107 more houses sold) the highest for the month of July for 3
years
• Marlborough: +13.7% (73 to 83 – 10 more houses sold) the highest for the month of July for 3 years.

Regions with the greatest decrease in annual sales volumes during July were:
• West Coast: -19.4% (from 36 to 29 – 7 fewer houses) – the lowest for 19 months
• Tasman: -18.9% (from 74 to 60 – 14 fewer houses)
• Southland: -17.0% (from 194 to 161 – 33 fewer houses).

Regional Analysis - Auckland

“The Auckland region saw a median price of $830,000, which remains the same as this time last year, although the median price fell by -2.4% when compared to June this year. The number of properties sold in July increased 6.6% annually. Although new listings decreased by 2.5% year-onyear, volume of sales were positive this month in Manukau City (+18.5%), Papakura District (+19.8%), Waitakere City (+14.8%), and North Shore City (+7.2%) when compared to this time last year. Anecdotally, there were more first home buyers in the market this month who are looking to get on the property ladder. Investors are making their way back into the market with genuine activity and interest in land opportunities. Multiple apartments are being built in Drury which is appealing to many first home buyers and may go some way to explaining the increase in sales volumes in South Auckland. Development stock is steady with several key buildings due for completion in spring. Looking forward, the market is expected to be steady, with more activity expected in the coming months.” (REINZ)

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed decrease in median price was a little larger than expected and the observed increase in sales count was smaller than expected. The current Days to Sell of 44 days is above the 10-year average for July which is 35 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 24 weeks, two weeks more than in July 2018.

Auckland_REINZ 

Regional Analysis - Northland

“In July, the Northland market saw sales volumes decrease by -5.1% when compared to the same time last year. The total number of inventory available for sale increased year-onyear by 16.7%, with a 2.6% increase in new listings in July. The median sale price decreased 1.9%, although the Far North district saw a record median price of $550,000. Anecdotally, we are seeing less attendees at open homes, with a lack of urgency from buyers. There are fewer cash buyers this month compared to this time last year, with the majority looking for properties in the more expensive end of the market. We expect listing numbers to increase as we head into spring” (REINZ)

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed tiny decrease in median price was in contrast to the expected increase and the observed decrease in sales count was in contrast to the expected increase. The current Days to Sell of 60 days is the same as the 10-year average for July. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 36 weeks, 6 weeks more than in July 2018.

Northland_REINZ

Regional Analysis - Waikato

“The Waikato market continues to be buoyant with a strong demand for good quality homes particularly in the lower price brackets. The Waitomo District (+28.2%), South Waikato District (+23.2%) and Hamilton City (+11.8%) all experienced increases in their median price compared to this time last year, as did the region as a whole with a 3.1% increase to $530,000. There are still large numbers of people moving from other major cities into the Waikato region because of employment opportunities which has likely contributed to the increase in median prices in some areas of region. There is still a fair level of competition with first home buyers in the lower price bracket of sub $500,000 where 42.74% of sales were sold in the month of July. The development market is constant with multi-developments across the Hamilton region attracting both first and second home buyers.”
(REINZ)

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed small increase in median price was fractionally larger than expected and the observed increase in sales count was slightly less than expected. The current Days to Sell of 42 days is less than the 10-year average for July which is 47 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 19 weeks, one week less than in July 2018.

Waikato_REINZ

Regional Analysis - Bay of Plenty

“The Bay of Plenty market saw a minor decrease in median price of -0.3% to $578,000 on the same time last year. Median prices in the Opotiki District increased by a significant 76.5% from $255,000 in July 2018 to a record $450,000 in July 2019, although with a small sample size there are large levels of volatility across the District. Median prices in Mt Maunganui/Papamoa ward increased 8.1% when compared to the same time last year to $735,000, but it was a very quiet month, with sales down 28.0%. However, Rotorua had a strong month with median prices up 17.3% on July last year to $440,000 and volumes up 8.4%. The REINZ House Price Index in the Bay of Plenty also reached a new high with an increase of 6.5% year-on-year to 2,845. Although new listings decreased by 4.7%, the total number of dwellings available for sale increased by 3.0% on the same time last year. The market continues to be busy with good attendance at open homes, multiple buyers bidding at auctions and good lending for first home buyers.” (REINZ)

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed decrease in median price was in contrast to the expected stability and the observed decrease in sales count was in contrast to the expected increase. The current Days to Sell of 45 days is less than the 10-year average for July which is 53 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 15 weeks, the same as in July 2018.

Bay of Plenty_REINZ

Regional Analysis - Gisborne

“Gisborne saw an increase in median price increase 16.2% to $355,099 and the number of properties sold increased by 14.9% when compared to the same time last year. The REINZ House Price Index for Gisborne/Hawke’s Bay also reached a new high with an increase of 11.2% year-on-year to 2,798. The lack of listings and low stock in the region means that there has been a significant decrease in the number of dwellings available for sale year-on-year (-41.8%), the lowest in the North Island. Total inventory also decreased by -18.3% on last year, with only 7 weeks’ total inventory available which is highly likely to be pushing prices up. Gisborne saw its lowest ever level of inventory at 71 properties (the previous low was last month at 79). We have seen large number of attendees at open homes and on auction days there have been multiple bidders where all properties were sold in excess of vendor expectations.” (REINZ)

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed increase in median price was a bit smaller than expected and the observed decrease in sales count was fractionally larger than expected. The current Days to Sell of 30 days is much less than the 10-year average for July which is 46 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 7 weeks, three weeks less than in July 2018. This is the equal lowest (with Otago) level of inventory of all the regions.

Gisborne_REINZ

Regional Analysis - Hawke's Bay

“The Hawke’s Bay saw an increase in median price from $430,000 in July 2018 to $470,000 in July 2019. However, with new listings down 7.8% annually, the number of properties sold increased by 8.5%, which has left the region with only 8 weeks’ supply. The median number of days to sell was down 4 days year-on-year from 34 days in July 2018 to 30 days in July 2019, one of only two regions alongside Gisborne with the lowest number of days to sell. The market remains tight with the majority of listings heavily weighted at the top end, especially in Hastings. With low stock levels, the Hawke’s Bay market is likely to remain competitive for homes in the lower price brackets over the coming months.” (REINZ)

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed small decrease in median price was fractionally smaller than expected and the observed moderately large decrease in sales count was fractionally smaller than expected. The current Days to Sell of 30 days is much less than the 10- year average for July which is 43 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 8 weeks, two weeks more than in July 2018.

Hawkes Bay_REINZ

Regional Analysis - Taranaki

“In July the Taranaki region saw an annual decrease of -4.0% in median price to $360,000. However, the South Taranaki District experienced a 24.1% increase in median price and a 65.4% increase in sales volumes compared to this time last year. The REINZ House Price Index for Taranaki also reached a new high (+9.1%) year-on-year to 2,991. Whilst new listings fell by 23% annually, there was an increase in sales volumes of 11.3%. Anecdotally, first home buyers and investors alike seem to be more active in the market compared to this time last year. There are good numbers at open homes, especially with new listings to the market. People are keeping a close eye on what’s on the market and what’s coming to the market with competition on the lower price range houses. The lack of listings is highly likely to be causing price sensitivity and multi-offers. New listings should increase as we enter spring.” (REINZ)

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed decrease in median price was larger than expected and the observed moderately large increase in sales count was slightly larger than expected. The current Days to Sell of 42 days is less than the 10- year average for July which is 45 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 21 weeks, six weeks more than in July 2018.

Taranaki_REINZ

Regional Analysis - Manawatu/Whanganui

“The Manawatu/Wanganui market remained stable in July 2019, with the median price remaining at an equal high of $370,000. The region also experienced the highest annual price increase (+25.4%) across the country. The Horowhenua and Whanganui Districts saw record median prices of $370,000 and $292,000 respectively. The Ruapehu District saw strong price growth with a median price of $255,000, up 43.3% annually. Sales volumes for the Manawatu District also increased significantly by 50% compared to the same time last year. Anecdotally, we have seen less cash buyers in the market, and most buyers want to carry out due diligence to satisfy clauses in contracts. There is still a strong demand from first home buyers, but the lack of listings is likely to be causing competition. The REINZ House Price Index in the region reached another new high this month with an increase of 18.0% year-on-year to 3,146, one of only two regions alongside Southland to reach over 3,000.” (REINZ)

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed stability in median price was in contrast to the expected small decrease and the observed decrease in sales count was in contrast to the expected small increase. The current Days to Sell of 31 days is much less than the 10-year average for July which is 47 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 9 weeks, the same as in July 2018.

Manawatu_REINZ

Regional Analysis - Wellington

“Wellington experienced a stronger seasonal market compared to July last year with the median house price increasing to $630,000, an increase of 14.5% from $550,000. The number of properties sold in the $750,000 - $1,000,000 price bracket increased annually from 13.4% in July 2018, to 22.8% in July 2019 which has likely generated the growth in median price. Interestingly, the Masterton District had an increase of 39.3% in median price annually from $280,000 to $390,000 and experienced a significant increase in volume of sales (+107.4%) from 27 in July 2018 to 56 in July 2019. Porirua City also saw a record median price of $700,000 compared to the same time last year. New listings for the Wellington region only slightly decreased by 0.6%, but new listings in the Wairarapa region had the highest increase throughout the country (+31.2%) compared to this time last year. Total inventory is the highest for the month of July in over three years. Anecdotally, we are still seeing homes in areas close to schools, public transport and amenities selling with multi offers, and older homes seem to be taking longer to sell since the new insulation regulations have come in. We have seen very little activity on the investment side of the market, but more investors are starting to dip their feet, due to the lack of rentals available. We should see more activity in the coming months as we move into spring.” (REINZ)

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed small increase in median price was in contrast to the expected moderate decrease and the observed decrease in sales count was bigger than expected. The current Days to Sell of 33 days is less than the 10-year average for July of 40 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at nine weeks, two weeks more than in July 2018.

Wellington_REINZ

Regional Analysis - Nelson/Marlborough

“The Tasman region saw an increase of 8.3% in median price from $550,000 to $595,650 when compared to the same time last year, although this is down significantly on June’s median of $635,000. There were no recorded sales under $250,000, with 65% of sales sitting in the $500,000 - $749,999 price bracket, which has likely contributed to the continued increase in the median price. Nelson had the highest increase in the number of sales in July (+25%), for the second month in a row, year-on-year. Overall, the region had the second largest decrease in volume of sales in the country this month at -18.9% year-on-year. The Marlborough region saw a decrease in median price of -5.9% to $432,635 when compared to the same time last year. On the flip side, Marlborough saw an increase in the number of new listings and in the number of properties sold in July 2019. The REINZ House Price Index in the Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman/West Coast region reached another high this month with an increase of 6.4% compared to this time last year to 2,377. Anecdotally, we are still seeing an active market especially in the mid to high range. Access to finance and interest rates are driving both new and existing markets. Buyers are seen to be committing to new releases early in the earth works stages in subdivisions around the Nelson area. In Blenheim, most of the purchasers were locals buying their own residential homes, with only one out of town buyer featured.” (REINZ)

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed small decrease in median price was fractionally larger than expected and the observed decrease in sales count was in contrast to the expected moderate increase. The current Days to Sell of 36 days less than the 10-year average for July which is 39 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 14.5 weeks, the same as in July 2018.

Nelson_REINZ

Regional Analysis - West Coast

“In July, the West Coast region experienced the country’s highest decrease in median price of -24.4% from $225,000 in July 2018 to $170,000 in July 2019. Additionally, the region had a 19.4% decrease in volume of sales year-on-year, with the number of days to sell increase from 69 days in July 2018 to 90 days in July 2019, the highest in the country. This winter has been much quieter than last winter. The newer houses are selling quickly with multi offers being presented for the first time in a long time in this region. Buyers are a mix of first and second home buyers mostly from other regions such as Marlborough and in particular, Nelson. The older homes are lasting longer on the market. There is the odd investor around, but not as many since the insulation policy came into effect. There are a lot of older homes in the area and investors don’t want to spend the money to meet the legislative requirements. The rental market is very much sought after as there is very little available. Lending in the region is also challenging, with banks continuing to hold back on loan approvals.” (REINZ)

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed large decrease in median price was quite a bit larger than expected and the observed decrease in sales count was in contrast to the expected increase. The current Days to Sell of 90 days is less than the 10-year average for July which is 99 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 41 weeks, 19 weeks less than in July 2018.

West Coast_REINZ

Regional Analysis - Canterbury

“In Canterbury, the median price increased by 3.7% when compared to the same time last year. Interestingly, the median price increased 37.7% in the Waimate District from $260,000 in July 2018 to a record $358,000 in July 2019. Sales volumes also increased in the region by 14.6% and new listings had a slight 0.8% increase year-on-year. The region is experiencing healthy activity and buyer enquiry, with a median of 45 days on the market to sell, fair prices being achieved, and investors starting to appear again. Anecdotally, we are seeing slightly less first home buyers in the market compared to last month but are still seeing good viewing activity at open homes and buyer enquiries coming through. Vendors are still a little slow to align with the market value but are getting fair prices. There are slightly more investors in the market compared to last month, with more enquiry from investors who have had access to lending, which has recently been a very quiet part of the market. In Timaru, buyers are at the more expensive end of the market and are looking at new subdivisions, which may be putting pressure on existing houses in the upper price ranges to meet the market.” (REINZ)

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed minute increase in median price was in contrast to the expected small decrease and the observed increase in sales count was fractionally smaller than expected. The current Days to Sell of 45 days is much higher than the 10-year average for July which is 35 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 20 weeks, one week less than in July 2018.

Canterbury_REINZ

Regional Analysis - Otago

“Dunedin City achieved a record median price of $462,290 in July driven by price growth across all areas of the city. Listings fell by -5.7% annually. Rentals are limited and sellers are hesitant to sell their homes in case they cannot find another house to buy which is likely to explain the low levels of inventory in the region. As we approach spring, we are seeing signs of the market loosening up with greater numbers of new listings coming to market.” Dunedin City. (REINZ)

“The Queenstown-Wakatipu ward saw a slight decrease in both median prices (-6.2%) and sales volumes (-8.1%) when compared to the same time last year. However, we still see the market tracking along slowly without any real ups and downs. Lending rates are still low, but criteria is still tough which makes it challenging to get finance. Vendors are starting to become more realistic of the current market and anything in the middle of the road is fetching a fair market price. Properties are selling well at auctions, with some not reaching vendor expectations but are willing to compromise a little. Buyers are spread across the market with the majority of listings going steady up to the $1,000,000 mark. Looking across the wider Otago region saw the Clutha District achieve a record median price of $280,000.” Queenstown Lakes (REINZ)

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed moderately large increase in median price was larger than expected and the observed moderately large decrease in sales count was in contrast to the expected increase. The current Days to Sell of 34 days is much less than the 10-year average for July which is 42 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at seven weeks, three weeks less than in July 2018. This is the equal lowest (with Gisborne) level of inventory of all the regions.

Otago_REINZ

Regional Analysis - Southland

“The Southland region experienced a record high of $300,000, up 20% year-on-year. The number of properties sold decreased by 17% when compared to July 2018, however there were more properties sold this month (161) compared to last month (155). Feedback from across the region is that there has been slightly more first home buyers and investors in the market this month compared to last year, but a similar number of cash buyers to last year. Buyers are spread across the market but with less stock to sell, the number of days to sell has increased from 27 days in July 2018 to 36 days in July 2019. As we head into spring, we are expecting the market to pick up again with more listings to meet buyer demand.” (REINZ)

Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from June to July, the observed increase in median price was larger than expected and the observed increase in sales count was quite a bit smaller than expected. The current Days to Sell of 36 days is less than the 10-year average for July which is 42 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 11 weeks, one week less than in July 2018.

Southland_REINZ